As an avid football fan, I’ve been disappointed with the results of the 2024 NFL Draft so far as only one of my “best bets” has cashed in on day one. Feeling frustrated, I reluctantly placed a few wagers that I knew would likely lose simply because I love watching and betting on football too much to wait until preseason before making any more picks.
But enough whining – it’s time for me to move past the initial letdown and begin preparing myself mentally and physically as we near the NFL season. In order to do so, I am going all-in with two separate shots at winning both of this year’s rookie of the year betting markets, hoping that by taking risks early on, I will ultimately see better returns come next spring.
Currently standing in Thursday’s market odds is Houston Texans quarterback C.J Stroud (+700), trailing closely behind are Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (+300) and Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young (+475). Despite these lower rankings, I still feel that last year’s rookie of the season in this category, Stroud (Texans QB from 2023-present), was a complete lock.
In fact, after reviewing the results of Thursday’s draft, it seems as though Houston Texans quarterback C.J Stroud may very well have been destined to win Rookie Of The Year in his first NFL season. At this point last year (April 25th), he was ranked fourth on Lines’ list behind Robinson and Young—clearly implying that it will take quite an outstanding effort by either one of the second or third favorites from the start if they intend to defeat him next year in his home turf.
I know I should have betted Stroud, but instead, like a fool, I placed my wager on Young (Falcons RB). However, as an early adopter and long-time fan of Caleb Williams since August 2022 when he won the Heisman Trophy with +700 odds to his name—it only made sense that after discovering in mid-September how skilled and prodigious young players were looking from different collegiate leagues during football’s preseason, I would go ahead and bet on Williams.
William’d star was initially fading into an obfuscate shade of light as the USC Trojans team failed to meet their potential in last year’s season; however, it became clear that this setback wasn’t entirely his fault—their defense had been abysmal. Despite these shortcomings, Williams’ play-making ability and arm strength remained unparalleled as he continued to lead the Trojans with a QB Rating of 180.5 (third in the nation), completing over 72% of his passes for an average of almost ten yards per attempt.
With these stats, I’m confident that Williams will prove himself once again and emerge as one of this year’s top contenders to win Rookie Of The Year award—all thanks to Chicago Bears who drafted him during last night’s second round. Their strong 2023 performance coupled with their current quarterback situation is perfect for setting the stage, enabling Williams’ team (Chicago) to potentially sneak into playoffs and cementing his status as an MVP contender while in a new uniform!
Aside from Caleb, I could see any of this year’s first-round quarterbacks being drafted next year underperforming or failing miserably. Here’s how the five 2024 NFL Draft prospects with higher rankings are placed based on their projected positions in that order: Williams (1st pick), New England Patriots QB Drake Maye, Cleveland Browns WR Grant McCarthy Jr., Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, Las Vegas Raiders QB Michael Penix Jr., and Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix.
While I’m not entirely thrilled about having two quarterbacks from the same division in my betting portfolio (McCarthy is a Cleveland Browns prospect), his situation seems to be more favorable than any of those that precede him on this list—and, most importantly, he’s playing for Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell. The latter achieved the best team-coach pairing outcomes as demonstrated through an incredibly convincing NFC North title win in 2021 during his first season with Minnesota (their franchise quarterback at that time was Kirk Cousins).
The following year, despite losing their star player to a serious injury midway into the game’s second half of last season’s playoffs against New York Giants—Vikings still managed to maintain a respectable record of 7-10 in 2023. The team also made some significant offseason moves, such as signing RB Aaron Jones from Green Bay Packers and WR Jordan Addison (also known as Grant’s fellow alumna). In essence, McCarthy’s odds are better than any of the other quarterbacks selected in this year’s first round due to his team having an advantageous roster filled with strong playmakers like Wideout Justin Jefferson or TE T.J Hockenson.
As for my second bet—I am confident that Indianapolis Colts edge rusher Laiatu Latu will take home the Defensive Rookie Of The Year title during next season’s draft ceremonies following Los Angeles’ former pass-rushing prodigy Aaron Donald (now retired). Despite his being named third behind Texas‘ B.J Edwards in lineup ranks at this time, I firmly believe that Verse would win as he continues making consistent advances each month after excelling and cementing his top billings while playing for Florida State Seminoles throughout last year’s college football season (he was a two-time All-American).
Verse’s odds are currently the shortest at DraftKings (+650), followed by Turner (+900)—and, of course, my bet to win this award. Verse will undoubtedly put up some impressive stats if LA Rams make it back into playoffs again while he continues his career with them as their new pass-rushing prodigy following Donald’s retirement last offseason (the team won the Super Bowl in 2021).
In summary, I am confident that Verse will win this award due to a combination of factors: LA Rams’ high scoring offense causing more teams throwing and providing opportunities for sacks, pass rushers being favored historically since Chase Young (former Washington Commanders player) won the Defensive Rookie Of The Year in 2019-21 followed by Micah Parsons from Dallas Cowboys during their championship run back in 2021. I firmly believe that Verse, Latu or Turner are a toss-up as they all possess remarkable skills and rankings within the top three of this year’s draft picks—however, given his exceptional record and higher odds among them makes it evident that Verse has the most potential for earning defensive rookie Of The Year honors next season.
Follow me on X (or Twitter) @Geoffery-Clark where you’ll get my perspectives into all things sports betting or tune in to OutKick Bets Podcasts!
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