MLB Season: Disappointment for Astros, White Sox; Unchanged Odds for Favorites

Despite being almost one-fifth of the way through the Major League Baseball (MLB) season, some teams are already experiencing dismal results. The Chicago White Sox have had an abysmal start with just three wins in their first 25 games, putting them on track for one of the worst seasons in baseball history. Meanwhile, preseason favorites like the Houston Astros have been disappointing due to poor pitching performances. On a positive note, teams such as the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles are living up to expectations with strong starts, although their chances of winning the World Series remain largely unchanged at around 18% for both squads. The small sample size in baseball’s postseason format often leads to surprising results, as underdogs can go on unexpected hot streaks en route to “upsets” against more talented teams with lower win probabilities. While some fans enjoy the uncertainty and opportunity for upsets that this system provides, it has made regular season success largely meaningless except in rare instances where poor performance dramatically decreases postseason probability, like seen by Houston Astros earlier in the year due to a disappointing run of form on their part during recent games played. If top teams acquire key players at trade deadlines and enjoy historic win seasons with talented offenses and deep bullpens, they will still have largely unchanged odds for winning the World Series as regular season success has little impact upon postseason outcomes due to small sample sizes in baseball’s playoff format that provides no real advantages. Fans seem content with this randomness despite its lack of logic or fairness since it allows teams like Baltimore Orioles, who are currently enjoying a hot start but still have only 7% odds for winning the World Series thanks largely to their poor past performance in previous seasons. Unless there is significant reform to baseball’s playoff format that gives top-two seeds byes and series advantages, meeting expectations will yield little reward as has been seen so far this season with teams like Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers enjoying strong starts but seeing no real change in their World Series odds despite these positive results.