Russia’s advance into Ukraine has prompted yet another tranche of US aid, which should provide Ukrainian forces with new weapons supplies and equipment to continue fighting. However, uncertainty surrounds future support for Kyiv, leaving analysts questioning what “victory” against a war-ready Russia would actually look like in the short term. Andrius Tursa, an adviser at consultancy firm Teneo, highlighted concerns regarding overdependence on US military aid and noted that there is currently no common vision between Kyiv and its allies about what constitutes victory for Ukraine or how it might be achieved. Discussions around alternative settlement options could gain traction later this year as more Ukrainians begin to consider territorial concessions in exchange for an end to hostilities, according to Tursa.
Ukraine’s leadership remains committed to liberating all of its territory seized by Russia since 2014, including Crimea and four regions that Moscow illegally annexed last year. However, analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko cautioned against holding onto unrealistic expectations given the challenging geopolitical context. Russian forces have enjoyed support from pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine for over a decade, and Putin’s leadership has staked its authority on winning this conflict. As such, Musiyenko explained that while securing western territories was optimal for both security reasons and historical sentimentality, Kyiv needed to be open about the possibility of different scenarios emerging from ongoing negotiations with allies.
Musiyenko suggested that a balance of powers could emerge if Russian forces were weakened, depleted or pushed back in southern regions such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia over coming months. This scenario would provide Ukrainian negotiators some leeway for future ceasefire talks whilst simultaneously offering the prospect of securing vital western territories with a new-found measure of security, provided all parties remain true to international boundaries following negotiations (in spite of lingering geopolitical tensions). However, Musiyenko also warned that Ukraine would never recognize any Russian occupation as legitimate. Nevertheless, in this hypothetically drawn scenario where Kyiv remains committed to maintaining independence and sovereignty with high levels of western support for future communications between allies, a prolonged ceasefire could be feasible – albeit an uneasy one given the underlying geopolitical tensions at play here.
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