Extreme Heat Expected Despite Weakening El Niño; La Niña May Supercharge Hurricane Season

As spring progresses, it’s not too early to consider summer weather patterns, particularly as El Niño rapidly weakens and is expected to vanish by the start of the season due to climate change impacts. However, this doesn’t mean relief from extreme heat; in fact, forecasters predict that its disappearance could lead to opposite conditions owing to increasing temperatures resulting from global warming driven by human-induced causes. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), oceanic temperature levels will hover close to normal during June as the transition between El Niño and La Niña phases occurs, with a so-called neutral phase expected before La Niña builds in early summer. The strength of these climate phenomena affects US weather differently based on their intensity and seasonality; while winter conditions can produce significant impacts due to differences in temperature levels across regions like North America, the same isn’t necessarily true during transition periods between El Niño and La Niña phases as temperatures are less extreme at this time. However, we have seen hot summers when these climate phenomena occur, such as 2016’s extremely hot season, following strong winter patterns. Current projections for summer temperature outlooks indicate that above-average conditions will prevail in most of the contiguous United States. Only certain sections from the Dakotas to Montana have an equal chance of experiencing near normal temperatures or either extreme condition. The western US is expected to experience warmer than average weather, which aligns with decades’ worth of climate trends as summers there are becoming increasingly hotter at a faster rate compared to other regions in America since the early 1990s. Phoenix experienced record-breaking heat last summer during July (temperatures reached an astonishing degree that hasn’t been seen before for any US city), which was also one of Maricopa County’s most pernicious summers from a human life perspective, with the highest number of deaths ever recorded due to extreme temperatures. The western and central regions are forecasted to be drier than normal during summer 2021; this dryness could exacerbate existing drought conditions in these areas as hotter weather amplifies aridity levels. In contrast, wetter-than-normal precipitation is expected from the Gulf Coast through the northeastern states of America. However, it’s still uncertain whether tropical activity will cause more intense storm events during this time or if typical rain and thunderstorm patterns will prevail in these areas; forecasters won’t be able to determine that until later on in summer 2021. The strengthening La Niña conditions coupled with record-high oceanic temperatures over the past year could supercharge hurricane season activity, which is predicted by experts at Colorado State University as being “well above average,” producing probable instances of intense hurricanes forming land or shoring upon Caribbean coastlines due to favorable atmospheric patterns for storm formation and preservation. This illustrates that in a warmer world there will be more fuel available for tropical activity, which could lead to stronger storms as well.