NFL Draft Odds Market Provides Unpredictable Wins for Gamblers Against Sportsbooks

As highlighted by bookmakers and bettors after the NFL Draft last week, the odds market offers rare chances for gamblers against sportsbooks during this unique event due to unpredictable outcomes. The consensus prior to Round 1 on Thursday night was that four quarterbacks would be selected in quick succession within the first five picks as Michigan star JJ McCarthy prepared to make a move into the top ten at pick number eleven for Minnesota Vikings after Kirk Cousins’ recent contract extension worth $100 million over four years. However, things took an unexpected turn when Atlanta Falcons selected Michael Penix Jr., who was projected to go either late in Round 1 or early in Round 2, as the eighth overall pick- a shocking decision that left bookmakers stunned and wondering about the team’s plans for their first round draft. This outcome had far-reaching consequences on several NFL Draft odds props, with Caesars Sports experiencing heavy juice to Penix Under at -400, which meant there was an 75% chance of him being selected in Round 1; this led the bookmaker’s expectation that he would be picked somewhere during the first round but not necessarily within the top ten. The same prop bet also affected BetMGM Nevada as they had a Yes/No proposition on whether Penix would go to pick number ten or below, and many placed wagers at +2500 odds- enough action came in that this resulted in some damage for the bookmaker due to Penix’s top 10 selection. The domino effect of these events also affected other props such as Over/Under on four quarterbacks being selected during Round One, which was decided quite early with six QB picks within the first twelve selections; most action came in favoring the Over prop. Most NFL Draft betting activity occurred around First-Round Props, and Caesars Sports reported a modest losing result outside of Quarterback positions. The final proposition that could be determined during this event was about what player position would get selected as Mr Irrelevant for the last pick; Circa Sports needed anybody but an edge rusher here, but Safey Jaylen Key’s selection by New York Jets in Round Seven resulted in a win for Caesars. In contrast to this scenario, operations director Jeff Benson reported via text message before NFL Draft betting started that over four quarterbacks being picked during the first round was beneficial and good news since they were doing well on Nix-Penix Unders props; however, Circa Sports lost again due to seven wide receivers getting selected in Round One. Four of these last ten picks also went towards defensive tackles by teams like New England Patriots (Cameron Thomas) & Seattle Seahawks (Byron Murphy II), causing an accounting loss for the sportsbook as reported on Saturday night, with Benson stating that this was par for the course and not surprising.