Trump Leads in Key Battleground States as Undecided Voters Decrease

Former President Donald Trump currently maintains a narrow lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in several key battleground states that are expected to determine the outcome of the upcoming presidential election, according to recent polling data released by Emerson College Polling/The Hill. In these swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – Trump holds a slight advantage over his Democratic rival in all but two cases: Biden leads in Georgia (42%-38%) and Wisconsin (44%-41%). The polls conducted by Emerson College Polling/The Hill reveal that undecided voters are reducing across the board since the project first commenced surveying last year, although they do highlight the significance of these differences in all states as being within the margin of error. In Arizona (Trump 48%, Biden 44%), Michigan (Trump 45%, Biden 44%) and Nevada (Trump 45%, Biden 44%), independent voters are breaking for Trump over Biden, while they favour Biden in Georgia (Biden 42%, Trump 38%) and Wisconsin (Biden 44%, Trump 41%). In Pennsylvania and North Carolina, however, these crucial swing states that have previously decided the outcome of two successive elections, Trump continues to lead with margins at 47%-45%. Moreover, Kimball adds, “independent voters break for [Trump] over Biden in Arizona (48%-38%), Michigan (44%-35%) and Nevada (43%-37%)”; whereas they favour Biden in Georgia (Biden 42%, Trump 38%) and Wisconsin (Biden 44%, Trump 41%). When third party candidates are included on the ballot, support is drawn away from Biden more than it is for Trump in five states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Support is pulled evenly between both contenders in Arizona and Michigan according to Kimball’s analysis of these figures.