As concerns regarding the state of the US economy continue to mount, the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey has revealed a significant decrease in overall sentiment for the month of May. The index reading for the month dropped to 67.4, marking a 13% decline and representing the lowest level recorded in the past six months. Economists had predicted a reading of 76.2.
This decline in sentiment can be attributed, in part, to growing anxieties surrounding inflation, employment, and interest rates. Indeed, data from the University of Michigan survey indicates that one-year inflation expectations have risen to 3.5%, up from 3.2% the previous month, surpassing analyst forecasts of 3.2%. Longer-term inflation expectations also saw an increase, reaching 3.1% from 3.0%.
These findings come at a critical juncture for the US economy. Although the Federal Reserve has maintained that inflation is moving towards its target of 2%, recent data has suggested that progress towards this goal has stalled. In March, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – which excludes food and energy prices – rose at an annualised rate of 4.4%, far exceeding the Fed’s 2% target, and continuing a pattern of rising inflation that began late last year.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently acknowledged these challenges, stating that “inflation has shown a lack of further progress toward our 2% objective”, and warning that “we remain highly attentive to inflation risks”. Although Powell declared that it was “unlikely” that the Fed would raise interest rates at its upcoming meetings, the persistent issue of inflation appears to have set the stage for the central bank to delay rate cuts for longer than anticipated at the start of the year, as markets grapple with the implications of the Fed’s revised timetable.
Other economic indicators have also fallen short of expectations. For example, the recent jobs report fell short of projections, while figures indicating a shrinking of manufacturing activity in April contributed to broader economic woes. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims climbed to their highest levels since August 2022.
These trends have left many economists concerned about the direction of the US economy, and the University of Michigan findings suggest that the sentiment among American consumers has been adversely affected. This is underscored by a separate report from the Conference Board that found consumer confidence in April had reached its lowest point since July 2022.
With crucial readings on consumer expenditure and inflation due to be released over the coming days, it remains to be seen whether the US economy will manage to stabilise in the face of these mounting economic pressures.
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