Analysis suggests Putin unlikely to invade NATO nation, focused on seizing Donbas region in Ukraine

Based on the analysis provided by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, it is unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will invade a NATO nation. Although Russia has used threats and intimidation tactics, such as flying strategic bombers close to U.S. borders and holding military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons, these are meant to signal a readiness for a full-on war with the United States over control of the post-Soviet regions. However, Putin is well aware of Russia’s conventional inferiority vis-à-vis NATO and would likely not intentionally pick a fight in which Russia would face the might of NATO’s entire war-fighting machine, as it would trigger NATO Article 5 Collective Defense. Therefore, Putin’s determination to achieve a minimum war goal of seizing full control of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, following years of conflict stoked by Moscow, should be seen as a major military objective rather than a prelude to a wider attack on the alliance.