Democrats are expressing confidence that Florida, traditionally a red state for the past three years, will be in play during November’s presidential election. This newfound hope stems from the issue of abortion rights being placed on the ballot following recent decisions by Florida’s Supreme Court regarding an anti-abortion law and constitutional amendment permitting abortions until around 24 weeks into pregnancy. However, this optimism is challenged by voter registration data which shows that Republicans now have a significant advantage over Democrats in Florida with almost one million more registered voters than their opponents. This comparative advantage could be detrimental to President Joe Biden’s efforts as he attempts to change the state from red to blue after Trump won it during his 2020 election campaign by three percentage points or around 371,686 votes.
The Republicans have maintained control over Florida since Jeb Bush’s (R-FL) gubernatorial race in 1998 with Scott replacing former Democratic Senator Bill Nelson as the state’s Senate representative following his defeat to DeSantis during the last election cycle. The issue of abortion has also been a contentious one, and Republicans have won all six Florida presidential races since Bush’s (R-FL) reelection campaign in 2004 with Trump being particularly popular as he is a resident of the state.
The Biden administration’s confidence that they can win Florida on this single issue has also been challenged by political analysts, who suggest that other factors would have to come into play for such an outcome. Aubrey Jewett, a professor at University Central Florida’s politics department stated: “Abortion combined with other factors may move Florida into the blue column.” However, Darryl Paulson from the University of South Florida’s government department downplayed this likelihood and suggested that most political factors currently favor Republicans in Florida.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has also expressed confidence regarding Biden’s chances of winning Florida with spokeswoman Rachel Lee stating: “Biden is losing in Florida, and he knows it.” Trump leads the current polling average by 10 points according to FiveThirtyEight. The RNC’s statement comes after Nikki Haley received more than 155,000 Republican primary votes during her recent campaign suspension in Florida which they believe could translate into support for Biden as many of these voters may not vote for Trump at the upcoming election cycle.
DeSantis’ dominance over Republicans is also a significant factor contributing to their current advantage with DeSantis winning reelection by almost 20 points during his last campaign in 2022, which some Republican members suggest was inevitable regardless of who held office as governor at the time. Florida will be hosting several high-profile political events this weekend including Trump’s three-day donor retreat and Tucker Carlson’s address to the Florida Family Policy Council’s annual dinner in Orlando.
Can you provide more information on how abortion access has impacted voter registration in Florida, especially among Hispanic communities?
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