Evaluating Past Predictions over Draft Grades: A Reflection on Accuracy and Uncertainty in NFL Analysis

The author reflects on the common practice of grading NFL teams based solely on their draft picks without considering long-term outcomes. Instead, they propose evaluating themselves using past predictions as a guide. The author highlights several accurate forecasts such as Jayden Daniels being picked higher than anticipated and Penix Jr.’s potential first-round selection. However, the writer also acknowledges some errors, including misjudging McCarthy’s draft position by multiple picks. Ultimately, the article serves to emphasize that accurately predicting NFL outcomes is challenging for even experts in the field.