Climate change intensifies historic Gulf rains, linked to burning fossil fuels

The heavy rains that hit the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman earlier this month have been linked to climate change, according to a scientific analysis published by researchers under the World Weather Attribution initiative. The record-breaking downpour was made between 10% and 40% more intense due to global warming caused by human activity burning fossil fuels, it found.
The team of scientists determined that climate change is increasing extreme rainfall events in both countries during El Niño years – periods marked by abnormal ocean temperature shifts with wider weather effects globally. Using scientific models they were unable to determine precisely how much more likely the floods had become due to global warming, but concluded it was “most likely” that climate change played a role because of increased atmospheric moisture levels and changes in circulation patterns caused by rising temperatures.
In just 24 hours between April 14-15, Dubai experienced its heaviest rainfall since records began nearly eight decades ago – the equivalent of more than one year’s worth of precipitation falling during that time alone. The extreme weather conditions led to chaos and disruption across both countries; four people died in UAE floods while at least 19 others, including ten children, lost their lives when a school bus was swept away by torrential rains in Oman.
The flooding caused widespread damage throughout the region with pockets of waterlogging visible from space via satellite images. The deluge also brought disruption to Dubai’s international airport – the second-busiest aviation hub globally – causing over 1,000 flights to be cancelled and subsequent travel disruptions for several days following. Road closures led people in UAE cities including Dubai and Abu Dhabi to abandon their vehicles on roads submerged by floodwaters while three Filipino women working in the city died when they were trapped inside a car as waters surged through the streets during torrential rainfall, reports CNN.
Mansour Almazroui from King Abdulaziz University’s Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research explained that record ocean temperatures had contributed to supercharging the storm system – in what’s known locally and historically as ‘kharif monsoon’. “The Indian Ocean is getting warmer, and high pressure in the Indian Ocean surely contributes rainfall,” he told reporters.
While El Niño – a natural oscillation of ocean temperatures that affects global weather patterns – was also identified by researchers at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change as having been present during these rains; Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science there said it’s vital to address climate change itself. “While we can’t stop El Niño,” she explained, “we can stop climate change.”
The solution is clear: the world must cease burning fossil fuels and end new oil and gas projects if global warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius – a scientific goal agreed at international climate talks last year. Yet still countries are embarking on major expansion plans for these pollutant-heavy industries, according to Otto’s analysis; including the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC which has announced ambitious new projects in recent months despite criticism from environmentalists and activist groups around the world.
As CNN reported last year, while many countries are committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels, a growing number of others remain resolute in their efforts to extract ever-greater volumes of coal, oil and gas – even as climate scientists warn that catastrophic floods like those experienced recently by UAE residents could be part of humanity’s new future should decisive steps towards a less fossil fuels dependent world not soon follow.