Former President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to Minnesota, a traditionally Democratic state that he previously claimed he could win, has sparked debate among political experts. Trump will address the Minnesota GOP’s annual Lincoln Reagan fundraising dinner, where tickets cost between $500 and $100,000 for a VIP table with three photo opportunities with the former president. However, it’s unclear whether the Trump campaign will receive any of the funds raised during the event. Minnesota Congressman Tom Emmer, who supports Trump, has been appointed as the state’s new campaign chair, despite being involved in blocking Emmer’s bid for Speaker of the House last autumn.
Trump came close to winning Minnesota in 2016, though Democrat Joe Biden defeated him by over seven percentage points during the 2020 election. Despite this, Trump maintains that he will win the state in 2024. Chris LaCivita, Trump’s senior campaign adviser, expressed confidence during a private gathering that the state is “up for grabs” due to the Biden administration’s handling of the economy.
Experts are divided about Minnesota’s electoral prospects. Ken Martin, head of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, considers the state a “purple” one rather than deeply blue, yet believes Biden will win the state again should they meet in the 2024 election. Steve Schier, a retired political science professor, also considers a Republican victory unlikely, given historical trends.
Republicans have gained strength in rural Minnesota in recent years, but this has been offset by Democratic victories in densely populated areas and voters shifting away from the GOP due to concerns over abortion rights following the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v Wade. While Democrats enjoy majorities in both chambers of the Minnesota legislature, Republicans are confident that Trump’s popular appeal will give them an edge in the state.
The Biden administration’s handling of the economy has been criticised by some, and inflation remains a significant issue. The state’s unemployment rate is currently 2.7%, significantly lower than the national figure of 3.8%.
Biden should benefit from the strong turnout and fundraising capabilities of the Minnesota Democratic Party, which has been successful in previous elections. Meanwhile, the Minnesota GOP has encountered financial difficulties, staffing changes, and internal divisions.
Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar is expected to win her fourth term, facing an underfunded GOP opponent, Joe Frasier. However, the midterm elections in November have attracted attention, with both parties hoping to secure wins in high-stakes races for the state House and a US House seat that is considered flippable.
Joshua Allan, a construction worker and Republican voter from the Minneapolis suburb of Oak Grove, stated that economic and social issues might persuade voters to support Trump. Allan, however, clarified that he would never vote for Biden, owing to his age and political record.
Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
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