2024 Global Oil Demand Growth Divided Among Experts: IEA vs. OPEC

The outlook for global oil demand growth in 2024 is becoming increasingly divergent among energy experts, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly reducing its forecast while OPEC maintains a stronger view. The IEA now predicts a growth of only 1.1 million barrels a day this year, down from 1.3 million barrels a month ago, due to weaker demand in developed economies and a mild winter in Europe. This represents a significant gap with OPEC’s forecast, which has remained at 2.25 million barrels a day. The IEA noted that poor industrial activity and another mild winter had reduced gasoil consumption in Europe, where the declining share of diesel cars in the fleet has impacted consumption. Meanwhile, oil prices have dropped 10% from their peak this year as concerns over economic slowdown and ample US oil supplies offset fears over Middle Eastern conflicts and production cuts by OPEC+. However, the IEA’s forecast indicates that global oil consumption will still reach a new annual record of 103.2 million barrels a day this year, despite the lower growth projection. Other industry estimates, such as those from commodities firms Gunvor Group and Trafigura Group, suggest growth closer to 1.4 million or 1.5 million barrels a day this year. The IEA expects a supply deficit in the second quarter due to output cutbacks by OPEC+, but this could deepen in the third quarter if the coalition maintains production curbs. The agency did not alter its estimates for 2025 but predicts a growth of 1.2 million barrels a day. The growing divide among experts on oil demand growth in 2024 will be a focus area for upcoming reports from US agencies, including the Energy Information Administration, which held a more pessimistic view in April.